Check, Call, Check Raise – Beware
Sometimes you start with good poker cards, end up having to bluff on the flop, and then catch up on the turn or river. The problem with this is figuring out if top pair is good by the river.
Here’s a common scenario. You raise it up preflop and get called by one of the blinds. Let’s go ahead and give you AK.
The flop comes out something like 3,8,10 rainbow. Your online poker opponent checks in first position and you decide to continuation bet the flop. Uh oh, he calls! You’re trying to decide if it’s worth it to fire a second bet at the turn and continue this bluff when to your delight the Ace comes on the turn.
Your opponent checks again and you bet again. This time, however, he raises you. With top-top you now feel super confident and shove on the guy. He calls and shows A 8. You lose.
The reason I bring this example up is the propensity that a check-call on the flop followed by a check-raise on the turn signals a bluff is very low.
Firstly, this means your casino opponent is playing out of position. If he hits a pair on the flop, even top pair, he might not bet it because he doesn’t want to get re-raised by the aggressor. A check call with one pair is very reasonable.
It’s also hard to float a player out of position. His check-call is not likely to slow you down. You still have to act before him on the turn. If you lead out and he has nothing, he’s going fold, and if you check, he’s almost always going to keep betting, as long as a draw doesn’t seem to have filled.
But the check-raise on the turn is almost always a signal of a very strong hand, at least 2-pair. He probably would not have check called an airball on the flop with just ace high, so when that ace comes and he check-raises you, he likely does not just have a weak top pair. More often he was unsure about his flopped pair but became strong enough to slow play on the turn.
So, when you bluff the flop and make a strong one pair hand and get check raised, beware.
